Enhancing Risk Assessments with Operational Scenarios

A New Perspective on Risk Analysis

In the ever-evolving landscape of cybersecurity, conducting a thorough risk assessment remains a cornerstone of an effective security strategy. Traditionally, organizations have relied on asset-based risk analysis methods. These approaches involve identifying valuable assets, assessing threats and vulnerabilities, and calculating potential impacts. While comprehensive, this method has several limitations:

1. Large Number of Risks to Manager: Asset-based assessments often result in an overwhelming number of risks, making prioritization and management difficult.

2. Abstract Risk Materialization: These methods provide limited insight into how risks concretely materialize, leaving organizations with abstract threat scenarios.

3. Repetition and Duplication: The process frequently identifies similar threats and vulnerabilities across multiple assets, leading to duplication of efforts.

4. Lack of Contextualization: Asset-based approaches may overlook the broader context, such as interdependencies between assets and the external environment, which can significantly impact risk.

Recognizing these challenges, the evolution of ISO 27005 has marked a significant shift from an asset-based to a scenario-based approach. This transition emphasizes the importance of considering operational contexts and specific attack scenarios. Similarly, the EBIOS Risk Manager (EBIOS RM) methodology highlights the need to describe strategic scenarios and break them down into several operational scenarios. This holistic perspective provides a clearer and more actionable understanding of risks.

Given these advancements, there is a growing interest in adopting more dynamic and context-aware methods. One such approach involves defining operational risk scenarios.

The Value of Operational Risk Scenarios

Operational risk scenarios offer a more practical and holistic way to assess risks. By focusing on concrete vulnerabilities and potential attack paths, organizations can gain a clearer understanding of their risk landscape. Here are some key benefits of this approach:

1. Starting with Concrete Vulnerabilities: Instead of beginning with assets, operational scenarios focus on specific vulnerabilities. This shift enables organizations to pinpoint and address the most weaknesses in their systems.

2. Considering the Entire Ecosystem: This method takes into account the broader ecosystem, including third-party suppliers, partners, and other external factors. This holistic view ensures that all potential sources of risk are considered.

3. Realistic Representation of Attack Paths: Operational scenarios map out potential attack paths in a more realistic manner. This helps organizations understand how an attacker might exploit vulnerabilities to achieve their objectives.

4. Easier Communication with Stakeholders: Concrete scenarios make it easier to explain risks to stakeholders. This clarity enhances understanding and support for risk management initiatives.

Implementing Operational Risk Scenarios

Transitioning to an operational scenario-based risk assessment requires a structured approach. Here's how organizations can effectively implement this method:

1. Define the Right Level of Granularity: Begin by identifying the appropriate level of detail for assets and components within the information system. This granularity ensures that the scenarios are neither too broad nor too detailed.

2. Engage with the Business: Collaborate with business units to understand the real-world consequences of potential risks. This engagement helps ensure that scenarios are relevant and aligned with organizational priorities.

3. Adopt a Repeatable Method: Utilize a consistent method for designing scenarios. One effective approach is the "Get to Know, Enter, Find, Exploit" framework, inspired by the EBIOS Risk Manager methodology. This method involves:

- Get to Know: Identify and understand the target system and its vulnerabilities.

- Enter: Determine how an attacker might gain initial access.

- Find: Explore ways an attacker could navigate through the system.

- Exploit: Assess how an attacker could exploit vulnerabilities to achieve their objectives.

Linking Attack Methods to Vulnerabilities

To effectively link attack methods to vulnerabilities for specific information system components, organizations should follow these steps:

1. Source of Risk Identification: Identify potential sources of risk, such as cybercriminals, insiders, or third-party suppliers. Understanding the source helps in anticipating the types of attacks that might be employed.

2. Feared Events Identification: Define the feared events that could result from an attack, suc as data breaches, system outages, or financial losses. This step ensures that the scenarios are aligned with the organization's risk appetite and business objectives.

3. Mapping Attack Methods: Link specific attack methods to identify vulnerabilities. For instance, if a database is vulnerable to SQL injection, consider how an attacker might exploit this vulnerability and the potential impact on the organization.

4. Scenario Development: Develop detailed scenarios that outline the steps and attacker might take to exploit the vulnerability.

Case Study: Applying Operational Scenarios

Let's consider a hypothetical case study to illustrate the application of operational risk scenarios. Imagine a financial institution concerned about the risk of a data breach involving customer information.

1. Get to Know: A hacking group discovers that a supplier is responsible for the management and maintenance of a platform used by the financial institution. The group conducts research and identifies a vulnerability in the platform.

2. Enter: Exploiting the platform's vulnerability, the hacking group gains access to the users' database and compromises accounts of the targeted financial institution, aided by the reuse of passwords across the organization.

3. Find: Once inside the network, the hacking group employs lateral movement techniques to locate the customer database.

4. Exploit: The group exfiltrates the customer data and demands a ransom, threatening to release the data publicly if their demands are not met.

Conclusion

The shift from asset-based risk assessment to operational risk scenarios marks a significant advancement in cybersecurity strategy. By focusing on concrete vulnerabilities, considering the broader ecosystem, and representing realistic attack paths, organizations can gain a deeper understanding of their risk landscape. This approach not only enhances the accuracy and relevance of risk assessments but also improves communication with stakeholders, fostering a more resilient security posture.

Adopting a structured and repeatable method, such as the 'Get to Know, Enter, Find, Exploit" framework, ensure that operational risk scenarios are consistently and effectively implemented. As cyber threats continue to evolve, embracing innovative approaches like these will be essential for safeguarding organizational assets and maintaining trust in an increasingly interconnected world.

How we can help you

Our expertise and experience in cybersecurity risk assessments can significantly benefit your organization. We provide tailored solutions to identify and prioritize risks effectively ensuring that scenarios are relevant and aligned with your business objectives. Our team employs proven methodologies, like the EBIOS Risk Manager, with adaptation based on our experience and your specific context to design relevant operational risk scenarios. By leveraging our comprehensive understanding of attack methods and vulnerabilities, we help you create a resilient security posture.

Author

Information Security Governance Team